It’s that time again: brands are gearing up for Euro summer 2026. But as fashion labels ink deals with European beach clubs to cash in on the jet set, the ongoing disruption to the Strait of Hormuz — where about 20% of the world’s oil passes through — is fueling a brewing aviation crisis.
Low jet fuel supplies are driving costs upward, resulting in high airfares, reduced airline capacity, and in some cases all-out flight cancellations. The fuel crisis is worsening at a moment when summer travel bookings are ramping up, and it shows little sign of normalizing ahead of the peak season. As of late March, flight bookings from the US to Europe were down 11.2% year-on-year, according to aviation analytics platform Cirium. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said on the company’s earnings call last week that flight prices could rise by 15% to 20% in the coming months.
Right now, everything is up in the air, so the actual impact is hard to pinpoint, analysts agree. “Given air flight disruption — with major hubs in the Middle East at lower capacity — it is not yet clear how the tourist inflow and spend in Europe will eventually pan out,” says Bernstein luxury goods analyst Luca Solca. “The outlook would be very different if we had — or didn’t have — a deal between the US and Iran. In the absence of that, we are continuing headwinds on [Europe’s] inbound [tourism flows].” This uncertainty is a blow for luxury, which last summer saw a decline in spending from both American and Chinese tourists.
In 2025, analysts were optimistic that Chinese tourists would return by summer 2026 as their economy recovered. Now, this recovery is underway, but some are skeptical about how many Chinese tourists will make the summer trip abroad amid disruption. Galeries Lafayette CEO Arthur Lemoine partly attributed the company’s flat sales this past quarter to the Middle East crisis, given some Asian travelers pass through the region en route to Europe (and long-haul airfares are more expensive than usual, thanks to jet fuel costs). That said, Asian airlines including Cathay Pacific, Singapore Airlines, and Korean Air are reporting strong demand on their European routes this summer, as Asian tourists who can afford to do so seek out European routes in lieu of Middle Eastern airport hubs. Plus, Chinese airlines are expected to add extra flights to Europe this summer, banking on their access to Russian airspace (and subsequent ability to bypass the Middle East) being a draw.
Despite rising prices, luxury is better suited than most to weather the impact. “Higher-income consumers are more shielded simply because they have more flexibility. They can cope with any price hikes, and they have more options to change flights and look at alternatives,” says Neil Saunders, managing director of retail at intelligence firm Globaldata. What would actually drive travel down is if these consumers were to seriously fear for their safety, says Suzy Davidkhanian, VP of content at Emarketer, who leads the company’s retail practice. “For high-household-income folks with a lot of disposable cash, there might be some disruption — they might think about it twice, they might book a little bit closer to the flight time versus pay ahead — but summer is already locked and loaded, unless the war escalates in a way we can’t fathom.”
It’s the next tier of middle-high-income consumers that are more likely to feel the impact and alter their spend accordingly, experts agree. While this consumer bracket may still book their European summer getaways, they’re less likely to splurge on material goods once they arrive at their destination. They may also rework their plans, Davidkhanian says. “Maybe they’re going to go for less nights, or they’re going to go to one city instead of three,” she explains. And if they have to spend more money upfront just to get to their destination, they might shop less once they arrive.
