Parents these days have a lot on their plate, not least an increasingly digitized, discerning set of kids fast approaching term time. The issue at hand? Fashion matters for school-age children (5-18) more than ever, but the economic climate is testing parents’ wallets.
Some context: US inflation hit 4.2% in May, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. According to a recent survey published by Deloitte, consumer sentiment remains shaky, with 57% of Americans expecting the economy to worsen in the next six months — the highest figure the company has reported since 2020.
Across the US and much of the globe, where uniforms are not the norm, school fashion is what a kid considers cool, and that can be daunting in an age where TikTok trends like “Buy Everything They Touch” — a viral video format where parents purchase every item their child picks up in a store — thrive. In the US, the average woman has 1.58 children, based on fertility rate predictions by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), meaning back-to-school shopping is a necessity for a large portion of US households. (The CBO actually forecasts that the fertility rate per mother will decline to 1.53 in 2036 — an indication of the economic headwinds to come.) A study published by UCLA in 2024 found that among married same-sex couples under the age of 50, 27% have one or more children.
Add to this the conflict in the Middle East driving up gas prices, and the macroeconomic backdrop to back-to-school shopping is hardly optimal. And yet, there’s a curveball. Parents are feeling the pinch, but they aren’t trading down; instead, they’re trading smart. “We’re seeing spend concentrate on fewer, more considered pieces,” says Amrita Banta, managing director of Agility Research, noting that sneakers and outerwear are the budget stretchers now, driven not just by parents but the kids themselves. To her point, members of Gen Alpha have developed a self-directed, sharp, fast-moving taste for fashion, having grown up on unboxing videos and TikTok micro-trends. As part of this, tween culture of yore has collapsed. Elementary school and young teenagers view much of the same content as adults, often shopping the same brands as 20-somethings.
With this comes reduced loyalty to brands but a tighter aesthetic. Banta highlights quiet, clean, and slightly oversized silhouettes borrowed from streetwear and skate culture as a key trend. She’s also seeing a revival in Y2K color palettes and playful logos not dissimilar to those schoolkids’ parents — largely millennials — wore in the first trend loop. On the shop floors, retailers are adapting fast. Department store Macy’s highlights sporty prep, statement sneakers, denim, and activewear as key trends for the 2026 back-to-school period, chiming with analyst predictions. Bloomingdale’s chief merchant Denise Magid also cites backpacks as a strong and growing category, noting demand for classic Polo Ralph Lauren styles and bolder designs from brands like State and Sprayground. Additionally, Bloomingdale’s sees strong momentum for novelty denim, patchwork and lace-embellished sweats, as well as growth in graphic tees across genders.
For retailers and brands wanting to tap in, differentiation will rely on newness and innovation. “The back-to-school season is the second biggest time period of retail sales each year, behind Christmas, and so far, the results have been encouraging,” says Dana Telsey, CEO of Telsey Advisory Group. Indeed, while the expected budget per child remains flat at $557, Deloitte values the US back-to-school market at $30.4 billion. Promotions for value-driven parents remain key, but the approach — and retail offering — require some fine-tuning.
Smart shoppers spend more
One of Deloitte’s most striking findings was that US parents plan to spend more across income segments as the number of digital tools — search tools, AI, social media — they use increases. The data revealed that non-tech users (20%) intend to spend $381, compared to $494 for consumers using search engines (30%), $531 for search and social media users (21%) and $737 for search, social and generative AI users (29%).
